A CABI sales colleague now in Argentina reported on June 30th that meetings had
been cancelled, ministers were resigning and hospitals & schools faced closure,
all through the fear of the novel H1N1 influenza pandemic the entire world is
now experiencing.
The Argentine Post points out that Argentina is now entering its winter, and that
the “number of cases stand at 1587 and deaths at 26 (June 26)”. For June 29,
the WHO states that laboratory confirmed cumulative cases and deaths are 1488
and 23, so I think the writer of the Post piece added cumulative numbers to the
newly reported ones for June 26.
Be that as it may, the WHO figures put Argentina 7th in global rank of number of
cases (USA and Mexico are 1 and 2) and 3rd in number of deaths (Colombia and
Mexico are 1 and 2). Experts tell us that influenza is a virus that prefers the
winter season in temperate regions… though it must be a considerably warmer winter
in Argentina compared to the UK.
There are other figures in the Argentine Post piece - death rates calculated for
Argentina, Chile and Mexico but they forgot to convert their figures correctly
to get %. By my calculations, the true figure for death rate in Argentina is
1.6% (not 0.016%!), which means it is experiencing a similar death rate from
this strain of flu to that of Mexico (1.4%). Only Colombia (2.7%) outdoes these
two countries for death rate from this flu strain, though it has less than a
hundred confirmed cases.
No wonder a health minister in Argentina, faced with figures like this and the
general belief that the case numbers were actually far worse, resigned…